College Football YTD: +6.80 units
Ohio State -15 @ Nebraska (-110)
CJ Stroud leads an explosive Ohio State offense who are looking to put a beating on an inferior Nebraska team this Saturday. Ohio State is coming off a win against Penn State that was far from pretty and they are going to want to pile on the points this week against Nebraska, who is just 1-5 in conference play. Ohio State is 4-0-1 in their last 5 ATS as a road favorite. Nebraska is 0-3-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. Look for these trends to continue in a 20+ point victory over Nebraska.
Ohio State/Nebraska over 64.5 (-110)
As I said above, Ohio State’s offense is EXPLOSIVE and they put up a big number almost every week. Defensively, I think Ohio State has some work to do. I think Nebraska will be able to put up around 20-25 points which will be enough for the over in this game. The trends all pointed to the over in this one as well, and I couldn’t ignore it. The over is 7-1-1 in Ohio States last 9 games against a team with a losing record. The over is 8-2-1 in Nebraska’s last 11 as a home underdog.
Wake Forest +2.5 @ North Carolina (-105)
This spread jumped off the page to me the second I saw it. In no way should Wake Forest be the underdog in this game. North Carolina has been underwhelming all season long and I don’t expect anything to change this Saturday. Sam Howell and the UNC offense will get their points in this game, but it will not be enough to keep up with Wake. Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as an underdog. UNC is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Give me Wake Forest in a shootout.
Wake Forest/North Carolina over 76 (-115)
As I said above, this game is going to be a shootout. Wake Forest’s offense has done nothing but put up points all year long. They haven’t put up less than 35 points since September 3rd. I have no doubt they will score in the 50s in this game. The over is 5-1 in Wake’s last 6 road games.
Pittsburgh -21 @ Duke (-110)
Let me give this one to you straight, Duke STINKS. This is a big spread, but it does not phase me. Duke has been held to 7 or fewer points in three of their last 4 games. They are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 conference games and unfortunately for them, I don’t see it getting any better for them this week. Pittsburgh boasts a very strong running game that will have no problem against Duke who ranks 122nd in total defense. Pittsburgh will show up with a little added fire after being upset against Miami last week. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 overall. I LOVE Pitt in this game.
Michigan State -3 @ Purdue (-110)
Last week we got a taste of how legit Michigan State really is. Some may see this game against Purdue as a “let down” spot for the Spartans, but I think they are going to keep rolling. Michigan State is 6-0-2 ATS this season and Purdue is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Give me Sparty -3!
Michigan State/Purdue under 54 (-110)
This game has Big 10 defensive slugfest written all over it. Both of these teams are “under” teams and I found plenty of trends to make me confident in this pick. The under is 8-1 in Purdue’s last 9. When Purdue is an underdog the under is 5-1 in their last 6. And the under is 4-0 in Michigan State’s last 4 as a road favorite.
Tulsa/Cincinnati over 54.5 (-110)
After the committee released their updated College Football Playoff teams, Cincinnati is now on the outside looking in. They are going to try to put up a BIG number this week after playing way to close of a game vs. Navy two weeks ago, and a relatively underwhelming performance against Tulane last week. Trends point to the over in this one as well. The over is 4-0-1 in Tulsa’s last 5 games after a loss. The over is 4-0-1 in Tulsa’s last 5 games on the road. The over is 5-1 in Cincinnati’s last 6 as a home favorite. Give me the over.
Louisville +4 vs. Clemson (-110)
Clemson covered the spread last week for the first time ALL YEAR. And they only covered because of a nonsense play as time expired. Louisville’s offense has been great this season, going over 400 total yards every game except for the opener against Ole Miss. Clemson’s offense is horrific and I expect them to struggle again this week on the road. Some trends for you: Louisville is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a game where they score less than 20. Clemson is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games. Clemson is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win.