Colts @ Bills
Many NFL experts and fans agree that the Bills could be the team to take down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this postseason. Josh Allen has had an incredible season as he threw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns, while leading the Bills to an impressive 13-3 record. Stephon Diggs, Allen’s top target, led the league in receiving yards this season and has torched opposing secondaries. The Bills have all of the pieces they need to make a deep run in the playoffs, but I am here to tell you that the Colts may pull off the biggest upset of Wild Card weekend this Saturday up in Buffalo.
Josh Allen has made one playoff appearance in his young career and suffered a loss. While this year has been incredible for Allen, this is just his second career playoff game and his weaknesses can be exploited. He is exceptionally good when he gets outside of the pocket and makes himself a running threat. One of the majors keys to the Colts success this weekend will be keeping Josh Allen inside the pocket and keeping a lineback near the line of scrimmage as a spy to prevent any frustrating scrambles that can demoralize a defense.
The second major key to the Colts success will be a little more difficult. If they want to have a chance this weekend they need to force the Bills to beat them with someone other than Stephon Diggs. Easier said than done, but if they can double-team Diggs with a high safety over the top and shut down the big play chances for Diggs then they have a good chance to win this football game. Force the Bills to beat you with guys like Zach Moss and Devin Singletary (they won’t).
The final key to success for the Colts is pound the hell out of the football. Jonathan Taylor ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards this season (1,169 yards) behind Derrick Henry and Davlin Cook. Stay true to your bell-cow back and keep Allen and the Bills’ explosive offense on the sideline. They won’t be able to win the game if they aren’t on the field.
Upset in Nashville?
The Tennessee Titans will beat the Baltimore Ravens this Sunday. Similarly to the analysis I just gave about the Colts and Jonathan Taylor, the Titans have a chance to control the tempo of this game by leaning heavily on their MVP-caliber running back, Derrick Henry. Last week Henry ran for 250 yards, giving him over 2,000 yards on the season. Derrick Henry can win the Titans this football game if they let him. Back on November 22nd, Henry scored the game winning touchdown in overtime against the Ravens in a game where he also ran for 133 yards.
The Ravens defense ranks 8th in the NFL against the run, which might make things interesting and force Tannehill to spread the ball around to his receivers. This will be no probably for them. Corey Davis and AJ Brown have been solid receiving options all year and will continue to be this postseason.
The Titans will be challenged with stopping Lamar Jackson and a sometimes explosive Ravens offense which can put up points in a hurry. The Titans need to force Lamar to beat him with his arm and not his legs. If you force him to throw the ball 30+ times, he will make a couple of mistakes and turn the ball over.
Vegas has these guys as 3-point underdogs, but frankly I love them on the money-line at +160.
Wild Card Weekend MEGA Parlay
My parlays have been on fire these past couple of weekends so I decided to bless you guys with another one for this weekend. I’m only going to drop my big parlay now and then I will release parlays with less teams Saturday and Sunday morning so stay tuned.
Herbert and the Chargers cashed my three way parlay.
Then, on Sunday Night Football, the Football team came up big and covered -4 to cash my 5-way parlay.
This weekends 5-way parlay. (+13000)
Rams/Seahawks under 42.5 (-110)
Buccaneers ML – vs. Football Team
Titans +160 ML vs. Ravens
Titans/Ravens over 54.5
Saints ML -550 vs. Bears
Risk: $10 | To win: $130
Risk: $100 | To win: $1300