The UFC has returned to its Apex Center in Las Vegas after their most recent PPV took place on “Fight Island.” While the venue may be smaller, the card is just as stacked, as Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miocic do battle for the third and final time for the heavyweight title, Suga Sean O’Malley has chance for another signature moment in the co-main, and more stars across the board. Lets break it down.
UFC Buy The Book Stats: 9-3, 69%, +2.25u
Kai Kamaka III -225 vs Tony Kelley
In the first fight of the night, both of these guys make their first walk in the UFC, with a clear favorite in Kamaka. He comes in riding a 5 fight win streak in some of the top non-UFC promotions out there, while Kelley hasn’t fought much at only 5-1 in much smaller promotions against lesser talent. On top of that Kelley has only fought twice since 2016, everything here points to Kamaka, and you have to ride the young prospect.
Risk 2.25 to Win 1
Livia Renata Souza -160 vs Ashley Yoder
Both of these Strawweights lost their last time out, but their careers prior to that fight is what sets these two apart. Souza comes in to this 13-2 in her career, 2-1 in the UFC, and as a former Invicta champion. Yoder comes in at a much weaker 7-5, and a mere 2-4 in the UFC. It’s clear that Souza is a much better fighter, and should be able to control this fight and get the win.
Risk 1.6 to Win 1
Merab Dvalishvili -240 vs John Dodson
In the main card opener the veteran John Dodson takes on the up and coming #15 Bantamweight Merab Dvalishvili. He’s 11-4 to Dodson’s 22-11, and has won four straight after dropping his first two fights in the UFC. Dvalishvili averages 8.76 takedowns per 15 minutes, and should be able to grapple this one into a decision victory.
Risk 2.4 to Win 1
Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera Under 2.5 Rounds
This one is extremely simple. Only 3 of Sugar Sean’s 12 wins have gone the distance. He’s a highlight reel fighter. On the other side, Marlon Vera has never been finished in his 6 losses and has won 12 of 15 by finish, so he’ll also be working fast to score a finish early. I don’t understand how this line isn’t at 1.5 rounds, hammer the under.
Risk 1.1 to Win 1
Stipe Miocic -105 vs Daniel Cormier
Finally, we have our main event. The final installment of the trilogy. The final walk of DC’s career, with gold on the line. If you don’t know the story both fights ended by KO, with Cormier taking the first and Miocic reclaiming the title to set up this fight. As the odds show, this is a very tight fight with Stipe a short dog. These two guys are the absolute cream of the crop, both in the top 10 PFP fighters and amongst the very best of all time.
But I’m picking Stipe for one simple reason. DC is retiring, and fighters don’t retire with their hands raised. They retire with the back of their heads on the canvas. I love DC as much as the next guy, but tonight Miocic’s power punching will be too much, and send Cormier to the commentary booth for good.
Risk 2.1 to Win 2